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my usual mustard on the current market situation 18.9.10

Hello again.
bin these days again eager to write. The situation is even more exciting and interesting. Fishing again with the sentiment indicators. But is also incredible how market sentiment can turn in just 3 weeks without my opinion there to have any reasonable reason. Only 3 weeks ago (comment from 29.8.) I thought that the mood would be negative for a crash and a strong Shortsqueeze would be possible. Well, this week is the atmosphere continued to rise and now as bullish as in May 2008 (then the end of the rally after the Bear Stearns Relieve bailout was). The difference between bulls and bears in the weekly AAII survey has thus reached a level that in recent years, almost always a top in the stock markets marked:

have the same time the macro hedge fund on Friday over a week ago their short closed. The 10-day correlation with the MSCI World, which I really like as a proxy for the positioning of these may be "shaking" of hands used (Chart of 5.9.), Shows an extremely bearish positioning of the hedge fund in early September, which has now ended. Since last Monday (in the 10-day correlation to see still insufficient, as it now is to just 4 data points), the correlation is now strongly positive.

to bullish sentiment on the stock market, the extremely bearish fits in the bond markets. Current survey Exchange Online: "We have seen the return-low of federal bonds?"
http://www.boerse-online.de/vote/486517.html?todo=detail&voteid=616221

Hab rarely before seen such a clear position on the financial markets. (Just for safety's sake, to let there be no misunderstanding: a sentiment so clear to me is usually a clear counter-indicator.)

So, the sentiment on the stock markets has made clear, the market positioning as well. And why? Honestly, I have no idea.
The S & P 500 has so far failed to break the key resistance at around 1130th


The forward-running macro data were not exactly amazing, and suggest even further down. In my opinion, too little attention ZEW (right scale; Ifo left scale) even fell into negative territory:


The Philly Fed index could recover but after the massive crash of the previous month, somewhat, but remained in negative range, the individual indicators although at catastrophic. Zitat von Econoday, die für den Makrokalender auf barrons.com und nasdaq.com verantwortlich zeigen: „A mild minus 0.7 headline dip doesn't tell the story for the September Philly Fed report. The headline is not a composite but a reading on a single subjective question whether general business activity increased, held steady, or decreased from the prior month. Questions on hard details tell a much more negative story.
New orders, at minus 8.1, contracted for a third month and contracted at a deepening rate. Unfilled orders, at minus 8.5, extended their long run of contraction. Shipments, at minus 7.1, contracted for a second month as did the workweek. Delivery times, at minus 4.1, continue to shorten. Inventories, at minus 16.7, show a second month of significant destocking in telling a reading that suggests businesses are growing more defensive.
A slight gain for employment and still firm confidence in the longer term outlook are about the only positive in the report. This report is showing much greater weakness than the Empire State report, a fact that hopefully suggests the weakness may be regionally isolated. Yet this report is clearly signaling trouble. "
That does not sound positive.

the same time, the inventory build in July (Business Inventories) rose as much as the last 2 years, not more. (Last, the increase in Juli08 was so strong and that was just before the economy started to break so right and the "Great Recession") was

looks to me like this: We have an extremely bullish sentiment continues and a significant weakening of the macro-leading indicators. And the most dangerous in the time of the year (September / October. September has so far had met not just his reputation as the worst month of the year, but is billed monthly in arrears.) One expresses dangerous cocktail is that the brewing here. The momentum is still positive, but the market has so far failed in reality in key brands chart. If the 1130 in the S & P are not overcome significantly and sustainably, I must say, was a risk for a crash long gone as high as now and in the remaining Until the end of October.

Well, let's see if that was out all right.
And so until next time!
Greetings
Franz

How Come My Casio Camera Isnt Readable On My Mac

my usual mustard for current market situation 11.9.10

Hello, register me for now but already back on a weekly basis. I will really keep very short.
is not much really happened anyway. Only one thing has changed markedly and that is the sentiment. 2 weeks ago I showed the chart of the AAII sentiment indicators and said that the atmosphere would be really too bad for a crash. Well, this has now changed but very fast. The difference between bulls and bears after the crash in late August to its highest level since now the Year highs in mid-April increased. Even more clearly see the development, when just the "bull" in the weekly poll is considered:

Is that part of the impression I get from the media: 2 weeks ago there was almost only bears, now dominate suddenly realized the cops. Double-dip is dead, it goes up. 2 weeks ago it was the fear of the crash, which drove the markets, now is the fear of missing the upturn.
reminds me immediately of the following cartoon Alex, on 30 August, just 2 days before the current rally Risky assets in the Daily Telegraph has been posted. Here, the German version of the Financial Times Germany from the 3.9. http://www.alexcartoon
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/alex/?cartoon=7971650&cc=7974509 or
:

original source. ? com / index.cfm cartoons_id = 3782
(Even if it's a cartoon character have made the experience that Alex the last few years, surprisingly often really was a true Guru;..)

the news agenda this week was indeed sown rather thinly . Hardly macro data. Only noticed the initial claims, which is now the 2nd week in a row have significantly improved and equalized so that the August increase, and thus have driven the current economic optimism further. Still, First are the labor market data are not just precursors, and second, the claims never came out of a level that is otherwise known only from recessions (Claims, blue line, right, inverted scale):

are that they are in society such as the NFIB Small Business sentiment indicator, and the highly regarded Consumer Confidence surveys (Conference Board, Univ. of Michigan, ABC). For all of the last recession has actually never ended.

So, and so I let it again be good.
A successful work week, I wish!
Greetings
Franz

Scorpio Guy Is A Flirt

my usual mustard on the current market situation 5.9.10

Hi, this time after only one exception, again Week. Well, winter is approaching obvious when one looks at the weather Sun Given the increasing desire to write again.
The events of last week, I quote my last comment (below the AAII sentiment indicator, which showed an extremely bearish sentiment): "At this level, this is more of a clear bullish signal. As negative
I am in principle to the markets in the short term there is a clear short squeeze is possible ... "
And that hits the nail on the head. I read regularly these days that the data for the last week have dispelled fears of a new recession. "Is the double dip dead?" Was one of the headlines.
Complete Bullsh **!
As will be mentioned briefly, was nothing good. There are simply too many bets that the results turn out hard and they have just not on the scale. And there were too many short, they had to stock up again. Quote from last week regarding the news of the Hindenburg Omen ". On the other hand has just leave the intensive reporting on the mood of fall on such a negative level, that an immediate crash is unlikely," If too many are short, there is no crash no matter what happens. The best example was the Lehman collapse, happened after the end of September for the first time in almost nothing. I can still remember. On Sunday, Lehman went bankrupt, on Monday the sagging prices decrease, but on Friday already anywhere from a relief rally was mentioned. The S & P ended the week at that time have been positive. The crash came only three weeks later, after the mood had again become quite bullish.

positions of the macro hedge fund based on the correlation to the MSCI World (Update of the chart from 19.6.): Goods this week so short as never before. Ouch, that has wiedermal hurt!


The mood this week, I think particularly of the Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday. Were these good numbers? Rubbish! Tends to be worse than last month and then prices fell because they were disappointing. This time, prices rise, although the data were poor, containing only the better than expected. It's all a question of Erartungen - and market positioning. And the numbers themselves: +67,000 in the private sector due to population growth in the U.S. far too little to keep the employment rate only constant. This would require well over 100,000.

But the most important figures for the month changes for me are always the ISM data. These were also the main reason for the rally. They were at first too strong. A rise in the headline number (PMI) instead of an expected significant decline. But a look at the details already looks less out favorably. From the ISM website ( www.ism.ws ):
The 3rd Consecutive increase in the two storage components (Inventories and Customers' Inventories), but also by 3 Consecutive decline in the two preceding components, the new orders and backlog (New Orders and Backlog of Orders):

Especially the latter is the fatal: The orders to hold it for long with the growth of U.S. industry with. I do not know if it's the strange scaling of the ISM data, or to the fundamentally optimistic attitude of Americans, but the ISM New Order component is almost always (more precisely 80% of the time) about the PMI and promises to even faster growth. (The Inventories component is historically interesting as it almost always under the PMI). Now that is not currently clearly the case, even worse, the difference (blue line, right scale) is -3.2 fallen to a level since the late 60's moved every time a recession by itself:

Although the time series is very volatile, so an eruption is already worrying.

And Non-Manufacturing ISM I do not need to say much. Significantly worse than last month and significantly worse than expected, but on Friday afternoon, the mood was far too good that the more someone has bothered much.

Thus, in sum: The catastrophe was avoided, but the trend is still downward trend ever. A recession has not been confirmed this week though, but was initially only postponed, not canceled. Shortly
to seasonality: in the historically weak period of 20 August to 31 September puncture the first 3 days of September than for this time of year produced an unusually positive. What I will say this: At the September-historically very negative seasonality changes, a good month starting one bit right.

A few words to the raw materials: copper remains very positive surprise, but the annual rate still generate a positive economic signal:

weak, however, the Oil price (blue): Did after the break of the uptrend in May established a new short-term upward trend, this in turn broke in August and win back in the strong rally in the risk assets last week, not again. Same time, the contango and therefore the rolling costs (red line, left scale) again significantly. Both are very negative.

addition, the seasonally strong period for crude oil is slow to end. (The seasonality in the oil price I think is one of the biggest misconceptions about the financial markets. Contrary to popular belief, the oil price in the summer is strong, weak in winter. The fuel consumption during the U.S. driving Season might be more influential than the fuel oil consumption in winter. Or maybe it is due to the Hurricansaison in the Gulf of Mexico. Or what ever ...) From www.seasonalcharts.de :


The oil inventory levels for this time of year to extreme proportions. Weekly report from the U.S. Department of Energy: http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/oog/info/twip/twip_crude.html # stocks (see chart U.S. Crude Oil Stocks in the left center of the page)
If in any case no Hurricane longer march through the oil rigs in the Gulf, the picture for the price of oil is increasingly negative.

And so until the next Time!
Greetings
Franz