Hi, hope you have taken advantage of the beautiful days and understand that I had neither the time nor the inclination to update my newsletter. ;) So much new there was not even under the sun in the last 3 weeks. At least nothing that changed my assessment of the market, that would have cleared in my case. Thought to myself that I am writing yet again, even if it will be in focus, just to say: ". Yes, I'm still alive" The SONNN appeared to be from heaven, but not in the markets, even if, after the strong rises the last few days back sprouts a little optimism. At the Kreditmäkten has hardly improved something. The Libor-OIS spread (see comment from May 15:
http://franzlischka.blogspot.com/2010/05/mein-ublicher-senf-zur-aktuellen_15.html ) rose despite share price recovery on Friday on a new year high of more than 33bps (Remember, Greenspan was once the end of the financial crisis, defined with a spread of less than 25 bps).
The U.S. economic data recently were (still) surprisingly well. Only the retail sales data on Friday showed significant weakness.
The weekly economic data, which are summarized in the ECRI Leading Index shows, but even the last few weeks a marked downward (to be Composition I know, unfortunately, but there's not as much data as available. Ultimately, it is mainly only initial claims anyway, and weekly mortgage applications. Retail Sales data, such as ICSC / Goldman. Of them were weak lately all).
In particular, I look lately, as mentioned often on the weekly mortgage applications (MBA Purchase Index), a very good leading indicator for the U.S. residential real estate market. This fall since the end of the First Time Home Buyer Tax Credit as a stone in the water. Even the 4th Consecutive week, a new 13-year low. After Pending Home Sales last month turned out very strong, but could Maidaten Existing Home Sales Surprise to the positive, the intrusion is only a matter of time.
And so I let it again be good. As you see I'm not more optimistic. Detailed report's back when the weather is bad or the situation but I feel better assessment. The first case is likely to arrive earlier. ;-) Greetings
Franz
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