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my usual mustard on the current market situation 30.01.11

Hello,
me now but surprisingly quickly grabbed the writing's content. But the weather is bad, and promise to stop the markets to be exciting. ;)
as an introduction to an update from the EM / DM (developed market) ratio as an early indicator of the global equity markets. Showed in the last week, while further down it came in the first EM ETF on Friday night in New York than all non-American markets had already closed, due to the escalation in Egypt only really for the sell-off. Will continue in the pace early in the week thus more likely. (And because I grade when updating last week's charts am: The Baltic Dry is broken by a further 17% I wonder when the first shipping company becomes insolvent.)

Friday night show but then the U.S. markets for the first time vulnerable . This looks best in the volatility. This was especially pleased with the turn of the year an incredible compression shown in the daily fluctuations. Actually, really unbelievable, but true: Only 2 years after the financial crisis that brought us tremendous volatility, was the volatility (measured by the change of the closing prices of the last 20 days) not only among the long-term upward trend (black) like that in April last year for a reversal of the volatility and thus led to a sharp correction in stock markets. No, the volatility was even now fallen to a level that was lower than that at the height of the credit bubbles of the last decade. In fact, it was even the lowest level since 1971!
(red: the regressed average trend line)

Even if the lies allegedly mainly to the high frequency traders who now make up the bulk of the trading volume on the NYSE and the driver has volatility-dampening (at least until they do not like the flash crash on May 6, suddenly out of the market pull back): In principle, a very low volume is a sign of too little anxiety and a contra indicator. According to the quote that sent me a reader once. "When the VIX is high, it's time to buy, when the VIX is low, it's time to go" The question is dependent, from where the VIX is high, from where low. Generally, you can quickly with such a tactic, of course, the falling knife attack. As in 2008, when many thought a VIX above 30, the market would be a clear buy and then had to watch in horror as he got over 80. I like the VIX as an indicator but because he often has a slight lead to the stock market. And there could now show an interesting situation: The VIX (blue, inverted, left logarithmic scale, S & P right scale) is now a part of course related to the historical volatility at very low levels and could the other hand, in recent weeks (low?) confirm the price rise in the S & P is no longer with a further decline. A turnaround is significantly more likely.

could also prove burdensome now the U.S. economy. Here there is indeed time being unclouded optimism. The ISM data from last month were in the sub-components very positive. In the weekly economic data, eg ICSC retail sales, mortgage applications and (in the chart below) Initial Claims (blue, right scale, inverted) is shown since the beginning but an end of the recovery.

no question that the bad data from the last week, in large part to weather conditions and will improve the next few weeks something. But the recovery trend in November and December is clearly broken. What surprises me not quite Finally, the recovery was indebted to a large part of the U.S. fiscal policy. In the fall should have the American people still expecting a massive increase in their tax burden of the year, when the so-called "Bush Tax Cuts" expire. Just in time for the for the so strongly consumer-driven U.S. economy is so extremely important Christmas business then the extension of tax cuts has been announced. The trade could then forward to the best holiday season for many years. But now, after the euphoria of the paint is starting slowly. The labor market data can further be desired. Consumers feel that they have no more money, but more than originally expected. And that's only for now. For while the federal government in Washington pushes the budget problems on the back burner, as the states of the water up to his neck. Illinois, the most severely stricken state, the credit default swap is traded for some time at a level between Iceland and Iraq, has just been raised dramatically in an attempted coup taxes. For the time being ridiculed by other governors, the example will soon become the norm. The giant state of California will soon adopt similar, does not want to go bankrupt. Even if fiscal policy by Washington to press the accelerator at the regional level there is only wailing and gnashing of teeth. And raises consumer sentiment not exactly.

yet another story that fits well into the picture:
A chart from the end of August last year, when the sentiment was extremely negative on the stock markets and was expected with a possible recession. At that time, in countless articles pointed out the seasonally unfavorable of September would be. At the time was then this year proved to be wrong. How often, if all expected. Is completely ignored, however, now that February is also historically a very bad month (and thus the large anomaly in the otherwise positive winter half year between November and April).

In sum then: The signs of greater Correction in equity markets take the last few days to clear. I now speak quite explicitly of stock markets, no longer on risky assets in general. What I have now but would exclude the time being that is, are the primary markets. In recent days, the political risk is now increased significantly and this could be the first time since the financial crisis lead to a splintering of the performance of stock and commodity markets. Now is not my main scenario, but in my opinion, underestimated risk. What if the protests spread (and, ultimately, one could almost say the "revolution") of Tunisia not only in Egypt but also in Saudi Arabia would? An oil price of $ 150 or more would be conceivable at any time. That would indeed be very negative impact on the economy. Would a scenario probably along the lines of 2008: Only a huge price increase and then a recession-related slump through the floor. In fact my total year-end forecast from last week would remain unchanged (ie negative). In the short term but I would conclude on raw materials for the time being no bet. Unclear to me would be the situation.

And so once again, until next time!
Greetings
Franz

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my usual mustard on the current market situation 23:01:11

Hi, I'm
for my first comment in the new year once again a few weeks left. Hope it's not why you become boring. ;)
But the very first weeks show surprisingly often the tendency for the remaining year. Although controversial, I see the so-called "January effect" as very useful. Especially the first two weeks to give the S & P 500 since 1950 in ¾ of cases the direction for the rest of the year. And that would be positive.
this I am but for now the positive messages. ;) The right on the most popular site in equity markets, the "most crowded trade" these days shows are now very massive weaknesses, namely in the emerging markets.
Did it already on 11 December last year, noted:
http://franzlischka.blogspot.com/2010/12/mein-ublicher-senf-zur-aktuellen.html (former trendline now located below dashed lines. Instead, as then, the outperformance I use now in order to improve traceability of the ratio, the not from the start time dependent. chart is exactly the same, but the scale is different.)
was the end of it then, probably "window-dressing" conditional, or by money from the retail sector, which is also momentumsgetrieben strong, short-term to a recovery. The market seemed to possibly on a new less steep upward move. Have therefore decided then, the issue of Emerging Markets from my outlook to To delete me because the situation was too uncertain. Well, last week the new uptrend has been broken completely clear, the short-term downtrend since October so clearly confirmed.

Again, the long-term chart. The double top from 1994 proved to be insurmountable for the time being resistance. Interesting that a ratio allows more significant technical chart points.

Reminder: This is the ratio (= outperformance) of the emerging markets to the "developed" countries. In absolute terms, the performance seen last week, but also badly bruised. Here, the MSCI EM in the form of the main index tracker the listed on the NYSE (ticker EEM). This shows now a fraction of the ongoing since the financial crisis uptrend:

Just last week I have some events again witnessed live and uninterrupted bullish regarding the sentiment EM, and how really "crowded" this trade is. If it still will break a trend that is for me a real game-changer. The correction, which I expect this could be very clear. And it will then show an impact on all other markets. After all, there were
yes, emerging markets, which the Western world in the financial crisis both in the crash, as were also in the recovery ahead. And not vice versa.

Far many years is the not entirely unexpected connection with the raw materials.
go Here I clearly believe that we will see this year with a correction of EMs is also a clear resetting of raw materials. (So I've been my outlook more pessimistic become the raw materials.) Green: the high oil-heavy S & P GSCI, blue the heavily agricultural-heavy Continuous Commodity Index (the further projected Reuters / Jefferies CRB Index in its former composition).

In this context, an update of the Baltic Dry Charts 19.12. The Baltic Dry compared with the raw materials. This time, however, even in long-term chart.


As can be seen, keeps the crash in the Baltic Dry continues. But is currently ignored. Argument as to why the index would not say more is on the cause of the crash. Unlike the financial crisis, it is not the sudden decline on the demand side, particularly the oversupply. In the boom years before the crisis, the construction of a vast number of cargo vessels has been commissioned, which are now completed. The decline shows that is not a weakening economy, but "only" massive over-capacity. Uh, hello? Is this not exactly the big problem of the emerging markets, especially China? It's all right, short-term is such a dramatic increase in capacity such as shipbuilding and in fact have been seen in the Chinese steel and cement industries still present in far more dramatic scale, positive for economic growth. But there comes the day of reckoning. A few days ago the largest shipbuilder in Vietnam went bankrupt, threatening the whole country once already celebrated as the new China, plunging into the crisis. Some are already seeing a new Asian crisis, which starts out in Vietnam. (Yes, the country is very small, but finally took the dramatic Asian crisis of 1997-98 also began in the economically second-Thailand.)'m Not sure about whether I would like to join this opinion. That in the next 10 years to a serious crisis in China is, I am convinced. Whether it actually happens soon, I'm unclear. In any case, I reckon, as I said, now even with a sharp correction in the EM exchanges. Perhaps the clearest

and how I see most controversial statement of my outlook was that we will see again this year a good retirement year. The first weeks were admittedly not in that direction. The weakness of the emerging markets and in my opinion, to increase following weakness in commodity markets, but now the chance that I get it right and the long-term downward trend in yields this year will continue. Finally, the current fear of inflation in the Western world is raw material for the time being driven almost exclusively.

A bullish development in the risky asset side I see it these days but still, namely in the PIIGS crisis. Very positive, I see that will be discussed more clearly on a debt restructuring Greece (which I think is inevitable), while the English spread does not shoot into the stratosphere, but falls to its lowest level in two months. Here is reaching from the market view that, while Greece, defaulter will most likely also Portugal and Ireland also likely that Spain but in a entirely different constitution. For the euro zone, the whole development would be quite a blessing. The 3 small PIIGS countries would default on their debts. This will avoid future moral hazard, without causing an excessive Lehman Meltdown in financial markets would, as it would in the event of a major country like Spain. I see the development in a long time for the first time back as positive. For the euro and equity markets in the medium term I would have voted positively. Relatively speaking, I think the future is EuroStoxx50 outperformed the DAX. (Taking into account the dividends; DAX is a total return index, Euro Stoxx 50, a price index), the German economy is however, very strongly to the demand for capital goods from emerging markets. Given the already existing excess capacity in China in my opinion, not an ideal condition for this decade, even if things work wonderfully.

Thus, in sum as an extension of my then still somewhat lean years outlook:
- Emerging Markets, the seller of the year 2010, will underperform
- raw materials are disappointed (so a correction to my old forecast)
- EuroStoxx50 proposes DAX
- Pensions: forecast largely unchanged: U.S. Treasuries will perform positive (and partly by the crisis in municipal bonds), it becomes a new QE-Programme after the expiry of the old end of June, come; Bund future but can suffer under the temporary relaxation of PIIGS crisis, English, Italian, Belgian, German, etc. Bonds are likely to outperform

And so until next time!
Greetings
Franz

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my usual mustard, etc - Annual Outlook for 2011

Hello and a beautiful new year!
With the new year there will also be in my newsletter at the time of the year back-and outlook.
This time a look back at my predictions last year. Here's my comment from last year:
http://franzlischka.blogspot.com/2010/01/mein-ublicher-senf-usw-der.html
What was right from wrong? Right time was clearly the statement that the housing crisis is not over and will worsen in 2010. The fact that the former fear of inflation will again give way to fear deflation was not wrong for sure, especially to the middle of the year, although the situation has changed a little towards the end again. General seemed my annual forecast this summer to be on the right path. The statement "government bonds (mainly German and U.S. bonds) are like 2008 to be one of the bestlaufenden asset classes, perhaps the only positive performing duck." End of August was absolutely correct. Well, is billed at the end. That the economic optimism of the beginning in fact stands on shaky legs, was correct. When it came in the summer actually looked like the dreaded double-dip from me, I was surprised by Bernanke's aggressive monetary policy. The fact that the U.S. government can at any foresight of its budget policy for next year already covered and re-schedules a deficit of over 10% of GDP, has surprised me. Instead of the Year-Midelection the remaining time to take to the presidential election in 2 years for less popular short-term measures now to monetary and fiscal policy depressed the gas pedal to stop and hoped that the car was not until 2012 dies. Episode: The bust was made for the time being. The German is not just as a consensus-call may be deemed Council, and U.S. government bonds Buy, but was still not the worst. Despite the slump at the end of both was clearly profitable. I mentioned the U.S. Treasury ETF rose by over 15%.
The proscribed by me at the time shares were mixed situation. The majority of the stock indices were positive. The major European index, the Euro Stoxx 50 lost, however, thanks PIIGS crisis 5 ½%. Earlier this year popular markets such as Japan and Australia lost the way in local currency as well, € investors accounted for most of the gains in international stock markets in 2010, in fact, thanks to currency gains from the weak euro.
raw materials could be thought of as different from me, not the stock and ran (in terms of broad indices such as S & P GSCI or DJ UBS) almost exactly with the stock markets decouple. By me at the beginning of expected increase in U.S. dollar, incidentally, was clearly correct. Regarding the expected me credit spread widening was to assess how much properly until late summer, on an annual basis, have the U.S. spreads, however, concentrated, whereas in Europe, corporate spreads (or "risk free" German government bonds) in turn PIIGS caused higher today than a year ago.
summary: Yes, I was seen in total over the year to bearish, I just get to hear too often. Still, I'm not sure about my time in such statements unhappy.

Sun, and thus for the coming year: the start, a rather unspectacular
prognosis. I would expect me largely a continuation of 2010. Of the current economic optimism I consider as one year ago, nothing. Reason is once again the housing crisis. For this, the chart of mortgage resets, which I had already used last year:

The new, 2 Wave will reach its peak in 2011, before the issue in the summer of 2012 it is finally history. The last week's Case-Shiller data show clear: The recent imbalance between supply and demand is reflected now in the price level (green line, left scale) down. (Update of the chart, which I've used the last weeks and months has often)

Lower house prices mean lower property, means historically higher savings rates and weaker consumer. Not to mention the problems in the banks' balance sheets altogether. That means another year a significant burden on the economy. The fact that similar to the first Downturn in the U.S. comes to a recession, I would not rule out, however, currently seems to be the political will to drown all the problems with money, big enough to avert this. In addition, the next U.S. presidential election moves ever closer in November 2012. A recession Obama in the past year would have been able to attach his predecessor, similar to Ronald Reagan in 1982 made in the last double-dip recession. But if it should now come to a recession, Obama is already planning his retirement. So I would expect for next year, but the comeback of a double-dip debate, in the end will probably return but instead a renewed program are quantitative easing by the Fed (QE3, QE4, QE ?...).
point, I think the downward trend in U.S. interest rates will be another, there may remain the last year. In 2012 or 2013 I would expect the fraction of the constant for 3 decades trends and then the side of so many many Years ago predicted bond crash.

The major new crisis is so my opinion does not come into the U.S. from a weak economy, but when the economy is too strong to justify a further bond purchase program of the Fed. Then disappear in the largest asset class of the most important buyer. And then it gets uncomfortable. But as I said, I would have no means for 2011 on the plan. In stocks

missing me the clear trend in my view. The closest I expect similar in 2010 as a swing stock market with no clear trends. Just like 2010, I would also expect a very weak start. The sentiment is right now extremely bullish. The AAII sentiment indicator displays an optimism last 6 years ago. (Difference bulls to bears)

And although the last week of the year against the seasonality just served with a sideways motion.
Chris Kimble has only this week very interesting Chartanlysen to Dow Jones and Nasdaq delivered 100, which are not exactly optimistic:
http://blog.kimblechartingsolutions.com/2010/12/is-y2k-impacting-your-portfolio- today /
http://blog.kimblechartingsolutions.com/2010/12/price-control-in-the-nasdaq-100/
addition, in January, a strong seasonal shift in the USD. Is historically with the beginning of massive stronger:
http://www.seasonalcharts.de/classic_usdindex.html
The remains very strong connection strong USD = weak equities / commodities and vice versa, this fits into the picture of a sharp correction of the risky assets to the start of the year.
As I said, need not be so negative for the full year. Bernanke will have his helicopter already ready to step in in an emergency, but for now I would start times very defensive in the year.

The subject defaults will play a central role in 2011. If the shield really get through the planned 3 years? I have a little doubt. Hardly anyone believes seriously that Greece in the next Years not defaultet. In Ireland and Portugal will see the rewards of not much better. Nevertheless, it saves the time being these countries, also to avoid falling over the far more important in Spain. Or even Italy. But after the debate, these countries have already achieved already, it makes sense there durchzufüttern the others? Or is the fear of massive losses in German and French banks in Dafaultfall just too big? It is ultimately a political decision and I trust me there is no statement on the schedule to, only that I can not imagine that the problem solves itself. The situation will only escalate and be linked to a partial default of some countries before it comes to the solution, which perhaps really involves a joint EU-bond. Where
not be a purely European issue on the occasion of the default is. In the U.S., the problems on the Municipal Bond market are also high boiling still correct.

In sum therefore a lot of problems that the market will impact 2011th Given inflation concerns come in the emerging markets due to skyrocketing food. Well possible that the beginning of their initial correction in the restrictive monetary policy in emerging economies, such as a renewed interest rate hike by the Bank of China.

raw materials is missing right now the life of their own to protect themselves permanently of shares. Perhaps it happen in the course of the year. I would like here but ultimately a better performance than expected in stocks next year.

On the whole, 2011 is similar to 2010, only more volatile with more problems, but also with more money printing by the Fed. Similar to earlier this year, I feel myself again at the highly unpopular government bonds (again, mainly German and U.S. bonds) on the still comfortable with.

Happy new year!

Greetings
Franz