Hello and a beautiful new year!
With the new year there will also be in my newsletter at the time of the year back-and outlook.
This time a look back at my predictions last year. Here's my comment from last year:
http://franzlischka.blogspot.com/2010/01/mein-ublicher-senf-usw-der.html
What was right from wrong? Right time was clearly the statement that the housing crisis is not over and will worsen in 2010. The fact that the former fear of inflation will again give way to fear deflation was not wrong for sure, especially to the middle of the year, although the situation has changed a little towards the end again. General seemed my annual forecast this summer to be on the right path. The statement "government bonds (mainly German and U.S. bonds) are like 2008 to be one of the bestlaufenden asset classes, perhaps the only positive performing duck." End of August was absolutely correct. Well, is billed at the end. That the economic optimism of the beginning in fact stands on shaky legs, was correct. When it came in the summer actually looked like the dreaded double-dip from me, I was surprised by Bernanke's aggressive monetary policy. The fact that the U.S. government can at any foresight of its budget policy for next year already covered and re-schedules a deficit of over 10% of GDP, has surprised me. Instead of the Year-Midelection the remaining time to take to the presidential election in 2 years for less popular short-term measures now to monetary and fiscal policy depressed the gas pedal to stop and hoped that the car was not until 2012 dies. Episode: The bust was made for the time being. The German is not just as a consensus-call may be deemed Council, and U.S. government bonds Buy, but was still not the worst. Despite the slump at the end of both was clearly profitable. I mentioned the U.S. Treasury ETF rose by over 15%.
The proscribed by me at the time shares were mixed situation. The majority of the stock indices were positive. The major European index, the Euro Stoxx 50 lost, however, thanks PIIGS crisis 5 ½%. Earlier this year popular markets such as Japan and Australia lost the way in local currency as well, € investors accounted for most of the gains in international stock markets in 2010, in fact, thanks to currency gains from the weak euro.
raw materials could be thought of as different from me, not the stock and ran (in terms of broad indices such as S & P GSCI or DJ UBS) almost exactly with the stock markets decouple. By me at the beginning of expected increase in U.S. dollar, incidentally, was clearly correct. Regarding the expected me credit spread widening was to assess how much properly until late summer, on an annual basis, have the U.S. spreads, however, concentrated, whereas in Europe, corporate spreads (or "risk free" German government bonds) in turn PIIGS caused higher today than a year ago.
summary: Yes, I was seen in total over the year to bearish, I just get to hear too often. Still, I'm not sure about my time in such statements unhappy.
Sun, and thus for the coming year: the start, a rather unspectacular
prognosis. I would expect me largely a continuation of 2010. Of the current economic optimism I consider as one year ago, nothing. Reason is once again the housing crisis. For this, the chart of mortgage resets, which I had already used last year:
The new, 2 Wave will reach its peak in 2011, before the issue in the summer of 2012 it is finally history. The last week's Case-Shiller data show clear: The recent imbalance between supply and demand is reflected now in the price level (green line, left scale) down. (Update of the chart, which I've used the last weeks and months has often)
Lower house prices mean lower property, means historically higher savings rates and weaker consumer. Not to mention the problems in the banks' balance sheets altogether. That means another year a significant burden on the economy. The fact that similar to the first Downturn in the U.S. comes to a recession, I would not rule out, however, currently seems to be the political will to drown all the problems with money, big enough to avert this. In addition, the next U.S. presidential election moves ever closer in November 2012. A recession Obama in the past year would have been able to attach his predecessor, similar to Ronald Reagan in 1982 made in the last double-dip recession. But if it should now come to a recession, Obama is already planning his retirement. So I would expect for next year, but the comeback of a double-dip debate, in the end will probably return but instead a renewed program are quantitative easing by the Fed (QE3, QE4, QE ?...).
point, I think the downward trend in U.S. interest rates will be another, there may remain the last year. In 2012 or 2013 I would expect the fraction of the constant for 3 decades trends and then the side of so many many Years ago predicted bond crash.
The major new crisis is so my opinion does not come into the U.S. from a weak economy, but when the economy is too strong to justify a further bond purchase program of the Fed. Then disappear in the largest asset class of the most important buyer. And then it gets uncomfortable. But as I said, I would have no means for 2011 on the plan. In stocks
missing me the clear trend in my view. The closest I expect similar in 2010 as a swing stock market with no clear trends. Just like 2010, I would also expect a very weak start. The sentiment is right now extremely bullish. The AAII sentiment indicator displays an optimism last 6 years ago. (Difference bulls to bears)
And although the last week of the year against the seasonality just served with a sideways motion.
Chris Kimble has only this week very interesting Chartanlysen to Dow Jones and Nasdaq delivered 100, which are not exactly optimistic:
http://blog.kimblechartingsolutions.com/2010/12/is-y2k-impacting-your-portfolio- today /
http://blog.kimblechartingsolutions.com/2010/12/price-control-in-the-nasdaq-100/
addition, in January, a strong seasonal shift in the USD. Is historically with the beginning of massive stronger:
http://www.seasonalcharts.de/classic_usdindex.html
The remains very strong connection strong USD = weak equities / commodities and vice versa, this fits into the picture of a sharp correction of the risky assets to the start of the year.
As I said, need not be so negative for the full year. Bernanke will have his helicopter already ready to step in in an emergency, but for now I would start times very defensive in the year.
The subject defaults will play a central role in 2011. If the shield really get through the planned 3 years? I have a little doubt. Hardly anyone believes seriously that Greece in the next Years not defaultet. In Ireland and Portugal will see the rewards of not much better. Nevertheless, it saves the time being these countries, also to avoid falling over the far more important in Spain. Or even Italy. But after the debate, these countries have already achieved already, it makes sense there durchzufüttern the others? Or is the fear of massive losses in German and French banks in Dafaultfall just too big? It is ultimately a political decision and I trust me there is no statement on the schedule to, only that I can not imagine that the problem solves itself. The situation will only escalate and be linked to a partial default of some countries before it comes to the solution, which perhaps really involves a joint EU-bond. Where
not be a purely European issue on the occasion of the default is. In the U.S., the problems on the Municipal Bond market are also high boiling still correct.
In sum therefore a lot of problems that the market will impact 2011th Given inflation concerns come in the emerging markets due to skyrocketing food. Well possible that the beginning of their initial correction in the restrictive monetary policy in emerging economies, such as a renewed interest rate hike by the Bank of China.
raw materials is missing right now the life of their own to protect themselves permanently of shares. Perhaps it happen in the course of the year. I would like here but ultimately a better performance than expected in stocks next year.
On the whole, 2011 is similar to 2010, only more volatile with more problems, but also with more money printing by the Fed. Similar to earlier this year, I feel myself again at the highly unpopular government bonds (again, mainly German and U.S. bonds) on the still comfortable with.
Happy new year!
Greetings
Franz
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