Hi, hold me once again very shortly.
My comment on the last 2 weeks: Once again, a real short squeeze. The 6 trading days in a row in which the S & P 500 were increased, exactly the time in which the calendar showed the main U.S. macro data, a large hole. Was exactly the time between the lousy Non-Farm Payrolls on 2 July and the same lousy Retail Sales 14 July. Thus, there was no bad news at the time of the macro side, simply because there was not even any messages. (Apart from the non-manufacturing ISM, but is mostly observed in the markets hardly differs except he Manufacturing from the solid, which was not the case. Both were bad. ;)
Well, the company's results surprised positively, but first, these are dated 2 Quarter and say nothing about whether the U.S. economy in the 4th Quarter will once again stuck in a recession or not. And secondly, the expectations were revised down in the run ever so strong that the obstacle could be skipped from the state.
interesting chart from Bespoke:
change in earnings estimates right scale
( http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2010/7/15/earnings-season-stats.html ):
But currently is dependent as much money Assessment around that the absence of any positive momentum and worse Nahrichten immediately lead to a buying frenzy. Well, the bad news to come but now again. The macro calendar is filled to the brim again since Wednesday. Retail Sales, Philly Fed, Empire State index and consumer confidence. Everything for the ton. Starting next week, then the monthly housing data and I hope to give them hardly any positive surprises. The mortgage applications fell last week on a new 14-year low. Since the end of the tax credits goes here's all downhill.
only positive message of last week came from the initial claims, which fell to its lowest level since the financial crisis. Problem is that you are very in this season with caution. Reason is the seasonal adjustment of the data. In early July, it comes every year in the U.S. auto industry to mass layoffs during the summer months. (If in the U.S. for the company appear more favorable as operating holidays). This effect is of course compiled. Since then, gives the U.S. auto industry in 2008 in their major crisis slid it in this industry now, however, significantly fewer workers. And that means less people will be laid off in early July. The statistician of the U.S. Department of Labor but use much longer back data over-estimate for the seasonal adjustment and thus the seasonal effect. Results: Since 2008 is early July, each seemingly a sharp decline in initial claims, the end of July but turns back. (Arrows below: Juli08 and Juli09)
So next week I'm plenty pessimistic (which is no surprise, perhaps;). The positive momentum is back from the market, real estate professionals are likely to be rather worse than expected (especially the Existing Home Sales on Thursday) and the second last week of July is historically the stock market anyway one of the weakest of the year (for whatever reason).
And that's it again.
Until next time!
Greetings
Franz
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