Hello, register me back again. At least as long as the summer goes on, is my pleasure to write, but continue to remain low. Maybe I'll take me more time in the winter for the Tippselei.
order to my top issues in the financial markets recently.
Chart of the week (or even better the last 2 weeks) for me is the positioning of the U.S. dollar non-commercials (that most hedge funds), according to weekly figures from CFTC last Tuesday. (Contract number in the 8 most-traded currencies, left inverted scale, data from Bloomberg and CFTC, on Bloomberg under the ticker. IMM $ BETS to find G index).
In just two months the market from one extreme USD Bullishness to a historically rarely seen USD Bearishness is rotated. Reason is the weak U.S. economic data and the temporary calm in the euro crisis. My opinions as to the global economy, I have already often said. Mag apparently some consider to be nonsense, but if the United States falls into recession, I am convinced that the rest of the world will be chasing. The decoupling theories I've heard too often, was previously always wrong. I do not agree. If the U.S. falter in spite of extremely expansionary fiscal policy, all those countries that now tighten their belts, and there are many, not pride, especially in Europe, with strength. The good growth data in Europe in recent times, not least through the first euro weakness Half reasons. The euro zone currently can only survive with a weak euro, else everything falls apart here.
The charting now speaks more for a stronger USD.
AUD / USD: very nice, abiding by the outbreak of the bear wedge.
EUR / USD: The upward trend is over.
with the extreme short USD position of hedge funds, the USD recovery my view, to only just beginning. The often-heard opinion in mid-June, EUR / USD would again reach parity, but now I have long not heard it but now think even more realistic. As great as the problems in the U.S. may be, the de-leveraging is simply very USD bullish, because it leads to a reversal of the USD loans. The greater the crisis, the stronger the dollar, even if the crisis comes from the U.S.. Sounds strange, but Sun
For Risky assets would be USD strength, of course, fatal. The relationship is stronger than ever before: AUD / USD against MSCI World:
What is happening to? The bond markets are extremely strong, the fear of inflation deviates more and more afraid of deflation. This is evident not least because, when calculated as a magazine Focus Money that so far every other cover with his favorite topics of inflation and hyperinflation has gone, now suddenly warns of deflation (cover the week before last):
And because I'm in grad Covers: "The Shareholders' headline this week" starting gun to the rally. The cops are going on ". The mood coincides with the last two trading online reader survey:
http://www.boerse-online.de/vote/486517.html?todo=detail&voteid=614931
http://www.boerse-online. de/vote/486517.html? todo = detail & voteid = 614 663
No question, the mood, especially in Germany, is again clearly bullish. More
I do not tell time. Just this: The time from the last week of August to September historically is the worst by far time for stocks. Maybe not everything is as bad as I fear, but the next 1 ½ months, I'd rather wait and see either way. There's even a chart
economic cycle, before I let's be back. Again to my favorite recurring theme. Double-dip in the U.S. housing market. The recent Existing Home Sales were ok, but were still positively influenced by the tax credit. The Pending Home Sales were once again but where the direction goes: new all-time low. (Reminder: Pending Home Sales = signature, since May post-Tax Credit; Existing Home Sales = total settlement, usually 1-2 months later, but have Tax Credit recipients until late September time)
Initial Jobless Claims are by the way this week has risen to its highest level since February. Thus, my assumption proved true of 18.7. That led to the relaxation in early July only by a false seasonal adjustment.
So, fits better, despite the good mood, it could be dangerous. Let's see who laughs last. ;)
(Source Note: The funny at all, are they going on holiday, dedicated photo is from http://www.flickr.com/photos/egarc2/2437521787/ )
And so to Next time, if it pleased me again!
Greetings
Franz
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