Hi,
will not stop me at the moment prefer to macro analysis seems currently to be not really relevant to the stock market. (Only so much. Play me grad around with the OECD Leading Indicators and their growth rate looks especially for the euro zone is very unfavorable, but more about it at another time that is again more about the markets.) The only thing currently one is: QE2. So Bernanke's (Helkicopter Ben's) promises Notenpesse after the next Fed meeting on 3 November, again to throw and his helicopter to make ready. The weak labor market data before last Friday did not matter, because they only increased the chance of QE2. Retail sales increased again on Friday, however, the matter was less useful, most Risky assets tended weaker. Ben's speech on Friday in which he practically guaranteed QE2, then could not move too much.
The question now is, well, how much is already priced into the market for the QE2, and what brings a sale of government bonds for the fact-Risky Assets? In the latter, I'm so in the past have often expressed my skepticism. In my opinion, especially as the Fed meeting on 10 August that this can even be very counterproductive and only the purchase of risky assets (eg MBS, corporates, as it makes the Bank of Japan at the moment) is really worth while. That might be an issue but for now, as the credit market is considered healthy. But this one is probably on 3 November see.
to the point, how much is already priced in, I find the positioning in USD interesting. In the "Currency Wars" (actual title of the Economist cover), in which each country tries to devalue its own currency seem that the U.S. currently to keep ahead. QE2 is expected thanks to the USD, despite the crisis in the euro zone a lot of pressure, much to the delight of the United States. However, the position thus risen to an extreme level. CFTC figures for the positioning of non-commercials (Mainly hedge funds) in the major foreign currency futures (blue line):
After the record-USD Long position led in June to a turning point, we are now within a few months back in an extreme situation at the other end so short were the non-commercials the USD has never! Since the correlation between the USD and the Risky Assets is still massively negative, would be a negative turning point for equities, commodities, etc.
principle is the seasonal end of the year but clearly bearish USD:
http://www.seasonalcharts.de / classic_usdindex.html
In the case of extreme positions like last year Turn but they are also used to be. Last year, some already in early December.
interesting recent developments in the main carry trade and a measure of risk tolerance, the AUD / USD. Which is like 2008 just before the skip the parity to the USD (red line). That would be the first time since the early 80s (and the end of the last great commodities bull market), that 1 Australian dollar would be worth more than U.S. $ 1.
keeping with the theme nor the current stock-Online survey:
http://www.boerse-online.de/vote/486517.html?todo=detail&voteid=617254
Naturally, in the current environment USD very bearish.
the Dollar, I have a brief technical analysis of my favorite technical analysis side, http://blog.kimblechartingsolutions.com / (a "spin-off of dshort.com):
http://blog.kimblechartingsolutions .com/2010/10/long-downside-wick-dollar-testing-support /
Otherwise, I can think of nothing more than to the third to wait for November. The strength of the markets in the hope that the new round of quantitative easing, admittedly, surprised me. Although I had long been expected to QE2, but believed that Bernanke would not just wait with the uncontroversial step until the economic downturn clearly is escalating and the recent housing crisis. His determination to create inflation was stronger than I thought. Now he must also still show that he succeeds as well. In the long term this is certainly possible when running the printing press is only strong enough. Short term, I'm holding my doubts, especially when one is content with the "Riskless" government bonds. But well, after 3 November is perhaps clearer.
And so until next time!
Greetings
Franz
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