Hi, maybe you have seen on Monday, why I I left for my last comment got so long. O) This is called a political exchange. Well, bad timing.
But no matter, has now changed anything in what I have written this weekend? No, absolutely not! The risk has increased significantly in the markets. Even if the implied volatilities of the options (ie, VIX, VDAX etc.) declined, the actual volatility is dramatically high (EuroStoxx50: +10.3% on Monday; -4.7% on Friday, which is already amazing!), And this is not a good sign for future development. Despite the rally after the auxiliary Pact: The raw materials (measured by the S & P GSCI), the past week a minus end, as many carry trades (including the most popular at present, the AUD / USD). A word about the raw materials: the contango in the oil price increases is currently huge. A very bearish signal for the price of oil.
Although Europe is in the media center, Greece is, as I said last week, only a symptom of the growing problems in the financial sector. This is particularly evident in Alan Greenspan's favorite stress indicator, the Libor-OIS spread. During the debt crisis of the old Alan had thought the crisis would be over when the spread falls back below 25 basis points (x-axis in the chart). (All of this good explanation: http://sohalt.wordpress.com/2008/10/08/indikatoren-der-wirtschaftskrise_1/ The entry dates from October 08, ie near the peak of the crisis)
In August 2009, then this was definitely the case. He then stabilized on a pre-crisis level of about 10 bps. Now the interesting, despite € 750 billion package and ECB intervention in the bond market, this indicator is the last days continuously on Greenspan's old mark stress. Why is that? My guess: just as much at the last time at the end of the QE-Programme. (See last week)
The markets currently seem to me like a drug addict who is in withdrawal. Your drug is cheap money from the Federal Reserve and its problem: the withdrawal has just begun. This will no good take.
For all chartists have an interesting long-term chart, which I liked very well. (Originally said of dshort.com ) Dow Jones since 1915, ran a few weeks ago approached the old resistance / support line, it forms a cross with the 2000 Top opposition.
So I let it be good for this week.
Until next time!
Greetings
Franz
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