Hello, register me for now but already back on a weekly basis. I will really keep very short.
is not much really happened anyway. Only one thing has changed markedly and that is the sentiment. 2 weeks ago I showed the chart of the AAII sentiment indicators and said that the atmosphere would be really too bad for a crash. Well, this has now changed but very fast. The difference between bulls and bears after the crash in late August to its highest level since now the Year highs in mid-April increased. Even more clearly see the development, when just the "bull" in the weekly poll is considered:
Is that part of the impression I get from the media: 2 weeks ago there was almost only bears, now dominate suddenly realized the cops. Double-dip is dead, it goes up. 2 weeks ago it was the fear of the crash, which drove the markets, now is the fear of missing the upturn.
reminds me immediately of the following cartoon Alex, on 30 August, just 2 days before the current rally Risky assets in the Daily Telegraph has been posted. Here, the German version of the Financial Times Germany from the 3.9. http://www.alexcartoon
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/alex/?cartoon=7971650&cc=7974509
or :
original source. ? com / index.cfm cartoons_id = 3782
(Even if it's a cartoon character have made the experience that Alex the last few years, surprisingly often really was a true Guru;..)
the news agenda this week was indeed sown rather thinly . Hardly macro data. Only noticed the initial claims, which is now the 2nd week in a row have significantly improved and equalized so that the August increase, and thus have driven the current economic optimism further. Still, First are the labor market data are not just precursors, and second, the claims never came out of a level that is otherwise known only from recessions (Claims, blue line, right, inverted scale):
are that they are in society such as the NFIB Small Business sentiment indicator, and the highly regarded Consumer Confidence surveys (Conference Board, Univ. of Michigan, ABC). For all of the last recession has actually never ended.
So, and so I let it again be good.
A successful work week, I wish!
Greetings
Franz
0 comments:
Post a Comment