Hello again.
bin these days again eager to write. The situation is even more exciting and interesting. Fishing again with the sentiment indicators. But is also incredible how market sentiment can turn in just 3 weeks without my opinion there to have any reasonable reason. Only 3 weeks ago (comment from 29.8.) I thought that the mood would be negative for a crash and a strong Shortsqueeze would be possible. Well, this week is the atmosphere continued to rise and now as bullish as in May 2008 (then the end of the rally after the Bear Stearns Relieve bailout was). The difference between bulls and bears in the weekly AAII survey has thus reached a level that in recent years, almost always a top in the stock markets marked:
have the same time the macro hedge fund on Friday over a week ago their short closed. The 10-day correlation with the MSCI World, which I really like as a proxy for the positioning of these may be "shaking" of hands used (Chart of 5.9.), Shows an extremely bearish positioning of the hedge fund in early September, which has now ended. Since last Monday (in the 10-day correlation to see still insufficient, as it now is to just 4 data points), the correlation is now strongly positive.
to bullish sentiment on the stock market, the extremely bearish fits in the bond markets. Current survey Exchange Online: "We have seen the return-low of federal bonds?"
http://www.boerse-online.de/vote/486517.html?todo=detail&voteid=616221
Hab rarely before seen such a clear position on the financial markets. (Just for safety's sake, to let there be no misunderstanding: a sentiment so clear to me is usually a clear counter-indicator.)
So, the sentiment on the stock markets has made clear, the market positioning as well. And why? Honestly, I have no idea.
The S & P 500 has so far failed to break the key resistance at around 1130th
The forward-running macro data were not exactly amazing, and suggest even further down. In my opinion, too little attention ZEW (right scale; Ifo left scale) even fell into negative territory:
The Philly Fed index could recover but after the massive crash of the previous month, somewhat, but remained in negative range, the individual indicators although at catastrophic. Zitat von Econoday, die für den Makrokalender auf barrons.com und nasdaq.com verantwortlich zeigen: „A mild minus 0.7 headline dip doesn't tell the story for the September Philly Fed report. The headline is not a composite but a reading on a single subjective question whether general business activity increased, held steady, or decreased from the prior month. Questions on hard details tell a much more negative story.
New orders, at minus 8.1, contracted for a third month and contracted at a deepening rate. Unfilled orders, at minus 8.5, extended their long run of contraction. Shipments, at minus 7.1, contracted for a second month as did the workweek. Delivery times, at minus 4.1, continue to shorten. Inventories, at minus 16.7, show a second month of significant destocking in telling a reading that suggests businesses are growing more defensive.
A slight gain for employment and still firm confidence in the longer term outlook are about the only positive in the report. This report is showing much greater weakness than the Empire State report, a fact that hopefully suggests the weakness may be regionally isolated. Yet this report is clearly signaling trouble. "
That does not sound positive.
the same time, the inventory build in July (Business Inventories) rose as much as the last 2 years, not more. (Last, the increase in Juli08 was so strong and that was just before the economy started to break so right and the "Great Recession") was
looks to me like this: We have an extremely bullish sentiment continues and a significant weakening of the macro-leading indicators. And the most dangerous in the time of the year (September / October. September has so far had met not just his reputation as the worst month of the year, but is billed monthly in arrears.) One expresses dangerous cocktail is that the brewing here. The momentum is still positive, but the market has so far failed in reality in key brands chart. If the 1130 in the S & P are not overcome significantly and sustainably, I must say, was a risk for a crash long gone as high as now and in the remaining Until the end of October.
Well, let's see if that was out all right.
And so until next time!
Greetings
Franz
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