Hi, this time there's a much more technically-oriented chart view. Positive he is (surprise, surprise;) probably not. Since we had
times the S & P 500 and the DAX, which have broken both their upward trend since early September. The S & P ran it in the recovery on Friday up to the old trend. Is interesting to see if this now becomes resistance.
the 30-year Treasuries yield the (especially so interesant because the Fed in its QE program buys almost all 20-10 year-old Bonds and the very long end of the yield curve as largely "not altered" can be viewed) has now turned to a number of occasions (though less steep) downward resistance line down.
Chart Technically, the ETFs are also very interesting (in the U.S. who have an even greater significance than here). The 20-30-year Treasuries (ticker TLT): The downward trend
(who held simultaneously with the upward trend in the S & P) is broken.
the 7-10 year Treasury (IEF Ticker):
The upward trend since 2007 has held.
course, this is particularly interesting because the end of June to end the QE-Programme of the Fed and this should be priced in the market increasingly. At the same time you might think that the soaring price of oil would fuel inflation worries (would be bad for bonds, especially after central banks worldwide to talk louder on rate hikes). Instead, this week happened quite the contrary, the high oil price in the markets can come up instead of inflation, the more economic troubles. The apparent parallelism between the end of 2008 shares (MSCI) and commodities (GSCI) now seems to break. Instead, the bonds increase with the price of oil.
being noted on the commodities or that the rise in oil was driven very strongly. For many agricultural commodities there was simultaneously a real crash. (Cotton was I think four days in a row Limit Down). This observation of mine: For all large oil price increases (1973, 1980 and 2008) increased agricultural commodities before the oil price massively and not at the same time or even later. The oil price seems to me among all commodities, even if, for the Western industrialized countries in the economically most important, in reality only a trailer to be. Quite possible that we (especially if the situation in the Middle East continues to escalate) for oil now see the price spike, the agricultural commodities (despite the recovery on Friday) is now reasonably likely to have already passed. That could, however, the coffin nail for the business represented.
And so until next time!
Greetings
Franz
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