Hello, again!
The most significant story for me the last 2 weeks, the relative collapse of emerging markets. Have also recently written a great deal already. What has happened recently, but was still incredible. In no time the whole of last year's outperformance has been lost.
has surprised me, however, that the other risky assets, particularly equity markets outside of emerging markets at the same time so firmly were. Let's see if it's that way. Have doubts there.
By the way I will not quite say with pride that my favorite chart analyst Chris Kimble last Thursday has just posted a chart on which I am already 23.1. have noted. (Even if he takes a slightly different ratio: ETFs instead of index and MSCI EAFE MSCI World instead and the result is almost the same)
Chis' Blogeintag from 9.2
http://blog.kimblechartingsolutions.com/2011/02. / time-to-be-concerned-first-sell-signal-since-the-summer-of-2008-just-took-place / and my
of 23.1.
http://franzlischka.blogspot.com / 2011/01/mein-ublicher-senf-zur-aktuellen.html
%% https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh5PNfEFW6NlpRW9q8X9WqPByiP68XJoOwaXmZ05Y3kvR9b7kSTIdWvgjwOtZ8HM0fBc-Wt1RBrdXrpp1MelyTB7xy5eiZwhTi-V8nK4zgz7ymldPN21laMMw1kKR97NvflRh96hyphenhyphenzDsiET/s1600/MSCI 2BEM 2Bkurz.bmp
Chris asks: "Time to be concerned?" I wonder that as well. (See even my previous blog entries)
And because I grad the analysis of Chris look at Kimble: On 15.5.10 I got from him an extreme long-term chart of the Dow posted, without knowing at that time, by whom he just was:
http://franzlischka.blogspot.com/2010/05/mein-ublicher-senf-zur-aktuellen_15.html (lower chart)
The 70-year-old resistance line at the time was it really for months as a stubborn resistance to the Dow proved. Well, now Kimble now has its own website (at that time he has usually posted at dshort.com) and last Friday I got there an update of the chart displayed. Strong short-term resistance:
http://blog.kimblechartingsolutions.com/2011/02/dow70-year-channel-update/
And again, Chris Kimble (I stand on his analysis, as you notice;):
has given his most recent entry in a very USD bullish comments:
http://blog.kimblechartingsolutions.com/2011/02/dollar-breaks-through-another-resistance-level/
This an old post of mine from 17:10:10 (first chart):
http://franzlischka.blogspot.com/2010/10/mein-ublicher-senf-zur-aktuellen_17.html
belongings then noted that the positioning of the non-commercials (primarily hedge funds), according to a new record with respect to CFTC Short position had (= long positions in the FX futures, Bloomberg ticker. BETS IMM $ G index). About 2 weeks of the USD was still sideways before he was much stronger. Well, now we are back to similar levels überverkauftem:
In sum: A stronger USD is increasingly likely. And that would not augur well for the risky assets, the correlation of the USD to the stock and Commodity markets is still clearly negative.
Finally, the economic data: ISM and last initial claims were very strong, I must say. Since no weakness was noted. In the Non-Farm Payrolls, however, was clearly the worm in it. The coming months will show how much of it was weather related. On the question of how the still very confusing data (very weak non-farm payrolls, but clearly falling unemployment and has been true for months) to explain, here are a few insightful Webeinträge of in this regard in my opinion the best websites that U.S. economic data Subject:
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/02/daily-color-two-employment-surveys.html
http://barrons.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=446884&cust=barrons&year=2011 # top
In short, there are 2 different polls. Ignore the non-Farms, as the name suggests, the currently booming agricultural sector (see record prices for agricultural commodities) and self-employed. More importantly, however, a very negative development is that more and more Americans enter the job search to simply. See the following Eintag:
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/02/january-employment-report-36000-jobs-90.html
This is the same chart in a visible way better in my opinion:
The employment rate (Blue U.S. Employment population ratio in%, right scale) stagnated in real life. But because the "participation rate" (U.S. Labor Force Particiaption rate, green, also right) falls dramatically (as never before since there are data), apparently recovered, the unemployment rate (red, left scale, inverted).
(unemployment rate = 1 - Employment rate / activity rate)
And so again until next time!
Greetings
Franz
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