Hi sign me exceptionally this time in a week back. Get the back but probably not make a habit. ;)
So, last time we went to the Emerging Markets. The contingent this week once more underperformers (measured by MSCI EM to MSCI World). Let's see, goes like the rest of the year. In the subject, I am the Balic Dry Index falling again, so the Frachtgutrate for solids (mainly iron ore and coal, with 2 of the most rudimentary materials that are in demand by emerging countries). The index has recently been a bit out of fashion, the one or other wrong signal delivered. I would not use him now as a single indicator, but it's interesting that he is now back to lows of the summer fast approaching, so a time when the word "double dip" was in vogue again.
significant event in recent weeks, but surely, the global crash in the bond markets. The yield of the 30-year U.S. Treadsuries is thus reached a significant level of technical chart.
resembles the well by me so much appreciated Chris Kimble, who has-timed the roller coaster ride in the bond markets this year, damn good. Since he can afford the evidence clearly in his post on Friday. Now he is again clearly bullish on the bond markets: http://blog.kimblechartingsolutions.com/2010/12/bond-stability-surprise/
I disagree with him because not once. How can that fit the current economic optimism? In my opinion, the bull market was in the bond markets over the summer months, a similar effect is equivalent to a massive interest rate cut by the Fed, the slump in the last few weeks now, a significant rate hike. And if it the U.S. economy is strong enough, I tried my doubts. As a reminder, the latest development in the U.S. housing market. No longer fresh, the data in the next 2 weeks are the current values. But you see, even in very sluggish Case-Shiller index (left scale) shows now a double-dip in the U.S. housing market. The increase in mortgage loans in the last few weeks probably will not contribute to improvement.
Another potentially very interesting Chart: The U.S. high yield market, based on my knowledge of the oldest and most liquid ETF (Ticker: HYG, blue line). It turned out since the start of the ETF is still mostly clear parallel with the S & P. Recently, wants the high yield market to swim but not so right about the risk on sentiment. This has something to do with the slump in the bond markets, historically but was a yield increase in U.S. government bonds as a result of increased economic optimism (about the 1st half of 2009 or even after the Bear Stearns rescue in the spring of 2008) a spread tightening in the rule overcompensated. The moment seems to be no longer the case.
Similar to the underperformance of Emerging Markets looking for a possible sign that the Risk On motion may soon could run out of air. Will there but no one to encourage quick shots. We have the last 2 weeks of the year before us and that is historically and last time I said, by far the strongest of the year on the stock markets. Even in 2008 you could make money in December. A significant price drop of the Christmas season is historically extremely unlikely. If the above developments, however, continue (ie, relatively weak Emerging Markets, dull junk bonds, new lows in the Baltic Dry), I would be the start to the year 2011 rather skeptical. The EU summit has also sent no clear signals. The Damocles sword of possible defaults State remains acute in early 2011. For ages, the theme will not allow also defer. The ECB is concerned with its capital Although new ammunition for the next intervention, but more than a game on time is not.
to order next time!
Greetings
Franz
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